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U.S. economic growth was revised lower to a still-solid pace in the second quarter, but momentum appears to have picked up early in the third quarter as a tight labor market underpins consumer spending.

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate last quarter, the government said on Wednesday in its second estimate of GDP for the April-June period. That was revised down from the 2.4% pace reported last month.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP for the second quarter would be unrevised. The revision reflected downgrades to inventory investment as well as business spending on equipment and intellectual property products.

The economy grew at a 2.0% pace in the first quarter and continues to push ahead despite 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022.

It is expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%.

The economy’s resilience raises the risk of borrowing costs remaining higher for a while, but slowing inflation is fueling optimism that the U.S. central bank is probably done hiking rates and could engineer a “soft landing.” Most economists have walked back their forecasts for a recession this year.

Though the labor market is slowing, with job openings dropping to the lowest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in July, employers are largely hanging on to their workers after difficulties hiring during the pandemic.

That is keeping wage growth elevated, helping to drive consumer spending. Retail sales increased strongly in July, while single-family homebuilding was robust.

Economists have boosted their third-quarter growth estimates to as high as a 5.9% rate, though this likely overstates the health of the economy.

article from CNBC.com
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/30/us-second-quarter-gdp-growth-revised-lower.html/

４－６月（第２四半期）の米実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）改定値は、速報値から下方修正された。個人消費は上方修正となったものの、設備投資の下方修正が全体の数字に響いた。

別の主要指標である国内総所得（ＧＤＩ）は過去２四半期に減少が続いていたが、４－６月は0.5％増加。ＧＤＰとＧＤＩの平均値は1.3％増と、ほぼ１年ぶりの高い伸びとなった。全米経済研究所（ＮＢＥＲ）で景気循環の日付認定に当たる委員会は同平均値を注視している。

労働市場の持続的な強さと堅調な消費に支えられ、米経済は前進を続けている。７－９月（第３四半期）も個人消費を推進力に成長が加速すると広く見込まれている。

こうした力強い傾向を受け、多くのエコノミストはリセッション（景気後退）予想を後退させるか、あるいは完全に撤回している。一方で経済活動が持続的に加速すれば、インフレ率の低下を確実にすべく、米金融当局が景気により強いブレーキをかけざるを得なくなる可能性もある。

４－６月の企業利益（調整後、税引き前）は0.4％減少。金融機関の利益減少を反映する格好となった。

米金融当局が注目するインフレ指標は速報値から下方修正。食品とエネルギーを除いた個人消費支出（ＰＣＥ）コア価格指数は前期比年率3.7％上昇と、過去２年余りで最も低い伸びにとどまった。

引用元：Bloomberg Japan
https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2023-08-30/S07ET1DWRGG001?srnd=cojp-v2/

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