WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth accelerated in February, but that likely masks underlying softening labor market conditions as the unemployment rate increased to a two-year high of 3.9%.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed wages rising moderately last month. The jump in the unemployment rate after holding at 3.7% for three straight months reflected a further decline in household employment. The mixed report boosted the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by June.
The labor market continues to support the economy, which is outperforming its global pears, even as momentum is ebbing.
"Despite the solid nonfarm payroll gain, the details from this jobs report are far weaker," said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets in San Francisco. "Labor market rebalancing is underway as advertised by the Fed, opening the door for a soft-landing for the economy and an initial rate cut around the middle of the year."
The smaller household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived showed household employment declining by 184,000 jobs last month. Applying the methodology used for nonfarm payrolls, household employment decreased by 271,000 jobs, marking the third straight monthly decline.
That left some economists anticipating that February payrolls could be revised lower when the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes March's employment report. Solid payrolls suggest the labor market remains strong, while the weak household survey implied layoffs were rising.
There has been a rash of high-profile layoffs, though employers are generally holding on to their workers after struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Our main concern is the widening divide between what the establishment nonfarm payroll data is telling us and what the household survey of employment is conveying," said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair in London. "The labor market on the whole is still tight, but the household survey is very clearly telling us that momentum is waning."
Financial markets saw an 80% chance of a first rate cut by June, up from 75% before the report was released.
Since March 2022, the U.S. central bank has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers this week that rate cuts would "likely be appropriate" later this year, but emphasized they "really will depend on the path of the economy."
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.
Acyclical sectors such as government and healthcare, which are still rebuilding headcount that was reduced during the pandemic, led employment gains last month. Nonetheless the breadth of job gains continued to broaden, with 62.6% of industries reporting an increase.
Healthcare payrolls rose by 67,000, driven by hiring in ambulatory healthcare services as well as at hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities. Government employment increased by 52,000, with gains in both local and federal governments.
Restaurants and bars added 42,000 jobs. Social assistance payrolls increased by 24,000 jobs, while employment in the transportation and warehousing sector rose by 20,000, amid a rebound in hiring for couriers and messengers, after shedding 70,000 jobs over the last three months.
Construction payrolls increased by 23,000 jobs, likely supported by mild temperatures. There were also gains in retail employment. Professional and business services payrolls rose modestly as temporary help services hiring, seen as a harbinger for future hiring, declined for the 22nd consecutive month.
Some economists viewed the persistent decline in temporary help jobs and the 4,000 drop in manufacturing payrolls as signs the labor market was slowing.
Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% last month after gaining 0.5% in January. That lowered the year-on-year increase in wages to a still-high 4.3% in February from 4.4% in January.
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[ワシントン 8日 ロイター] - 米労働省が8日発表した2月の雇用統計によると、非農業部門雇用者数は前月比27万5000人増加と、市場予想(20万人増)を上回った。ただ、過去2カ月分の雇用の増加数が合計16万7000人下方修正されたほか、失業率が約2年ぶりの水準に上昇し、米労働市場が減速しつつある可能性が示唆された。
2月は賃金の伸びも鈍化。インディード・ハイアリング・ラボの北米担当経済調査ディレクター、ニック・バンカー氏は「労働市場は昨年のような緩やかな傾向に戻りつつあるようだ」とし、「雇用が維持されていることに加え、賃金の伸びが鈍化しているため、米連邦準備理事会(FRB)は今回の雇用統計に満足しているはずだ」と述べた。
BMOキャピタル・マーケッツのチーフ米国エコノミスト、スコット・アンダーソン氏は「非農業部門雇用者数の堅調な伸びにもかかわらず、今回の雇用統計の内容ははるかに弱い」と指摘。「FRBが伝えているように労働市場のリバランスが進行しており、経済のソフトランディング(軟着陸)と年半ば頃の利下げ開始への扉が開かれている」と述べた。
家計調査に基づく雇用者数は18万4000人減。非農業部門雇用者数の算出に使用される方法を適用すると、家計調査に基づく雇用者数は27万1000人減と3カ月連続で減少した。
このため一部のエコノミストは、3月の雇用統計発表時に2月分が下方修正される可能性があると予想。ウィリアム・ブレアのマクロアナリスト、リチャード・デ・チャザル氏は「われわれの主な懸念は、事業所の非農業部門雇用者数と家計調査の雇用者数との差が広がっていることだ」と言及。「労働市場全体としては依然逼迫しているが、家計調査はその勢いが衰えつつあることをはっきりと示している」とした。
金融市場が見込むFRBが6月までに利下げを開始する確率は80%と、雇用統計発表前の75%から上昇した。
<失業率約2年ぶり高水準、賃金の伸び鈍化>
失業率は3.9%。1月まで3カ月連続で3.7%を維持していたが、2022年1月以来の水準に上昇した。
時間当たり平均賃金は前月比0.1%上昇で1月(0.5%上昇)から減速。前年比では4.3%上昇で1月(4.4%上昇)を若干下回った。
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